WHEN CANADA announced the $175 million loan for the Strange Lake project, many people’s first reaction seemed to be to tie it directly to what’s happening globally right now with China, geopolitics, and supply disruptions.
While that’s part of the picture, I wouldn’t say that’s the full story. From what we’ve seen over time, this has been moving in this direction long before now.
A global shift toward supply chain security is accelerating
If you go back a decade or so, the focus was really on globalisation. How do we source materials for less? How do we move production to lower-cost regions?
That worked for a long time. But over the last several years, there’s been a shift. Gradually, it’s become more about security, control, and reliability.
Where are the materials coming from, and what happens if that supply gets interrupted? You see that across multiple regions. It’s not just Canada; the U.S. is doing it, as is Europe.
Different policies, different structures, but the same general direction: trying to bring more of that supply chain closer, or at least make it more secure. So, when I look at this project, I don’t see it as a reaction to one specific event, but rather as part of that longer trend.
Now, things like geopolitical tensions or disruptions do matter. They tend to push things forward faster. But they’re not the starting point.
Mining gets the headlines, but processing holds the power
Background
One of the largest deposits of heavy rare earth elements in the Western world, located beneath the tundra of northern Quebec. The metals found here, dysprosium and terbium, go into electric vehicles, wind turbines and military equipment.
| Location | Nunavik, northern Quebec |
| Operator | Torngat Metals |
| Federal loan | CAD $175 million |
| Feasibility study | Expected 2026 |
| First production | Targeted 2029 to 2030 |
China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth processing. Strange Lake is part of Canada’s push to build its own supply chain for these materials.
Sources: Natural Resources Canada · Torngat Metals
One thing that comes up a lot in these discussions is the focus on mining. But when you really look at it, the bigger issue tends to be on the processing side.
That’s where a lot of the concentration is, especially in China, which is estimated to control a significant majority of global rare earth refining capacity, recently cited at around 90%. So even if you’re mining materials in North America or elsewhere, you’re still dependent on external processing.
That’s the part that’s harder to replace. And that’s why projects like Strange Lake matter a bit more than just the resource itself. It’s not only about extracting the material; it’s also about what happens after that.
From where I sit, it really comes down to having both. If you only have the mine, you’re still tied into the global system. If you only have processing, you need feedstock.
So over the long term, it has to be a combination. That’s where Canada’s investment starts to come into play. By supporting projects like Strange Lake, the goal is not just to develop the resource but to move closer to having both pieces in place over time.
That creates a path toward greater independence, which ties back to the broader shift we’re seeing where countries are taking more control over their own supply chains rather than relying as heavily on global systems.
Long timelines and market realities will define success
The other piece that doesn’t always get enough attention is timing. There’s sometimes an assumption that once funding is announced, production is not too far behind.
In reality, however, projects of this type take a long time. Mining projects, on average, you’re looking at 10-15 years. Sometimes longer, depending on permitting and market conditions.
At Industrial Info Resources, we’ve tracked projects that go well beyond that. Processing is faster, but it’s still a multi-year process, at least three to five years. So this is not something that changes supply overnight.
It’s a long-term investment. And in North America, there are additional hurdles. Permitting can take time. Costs are higher. The overall process is slower compared to other regions, making it more difficult to compete on speed and cost.
Government funding helps, no question. It can move projects forward and reduce some of the upfront risk. However, it doesn’t solve everything. These projects still have to make sense economically.
Policy is another component at play. For projects that take 10 or 15 years, consistency matters. If the policy environment keeps shifting, it becomes harder for companies to commit capital.
So when I look at this investment, I don’t see it as a quick solution. It’s more of a step in a longer process. Countries are trying to build out their own supply chains, reduce reliance where they can, and add both mining and processing capacity over time.
While Canada is taking strides to strengthen its own resources and supply chain, it’s one country of many that’s moving in this direction. Even still, that kind of shift does not happen quickly.
